[uk_rpi] [estimation_errors] [alternative_UK_indices]

So far, all we have found are the Bank of England yield curves, which are updated on a daily basis. For durations as far out as 25 years, “spot” and “forward” estimates are shown, mostly available since January 1985. The statistics include “nominal”, “real” and “inflation” (all RPI based). As a further alternative to “Bank of England”, we tried looking at deriving forward estimates from past experience for the same period length. However, the pattern over time was so chaotic that we saw no point in pursuing this line of thought any further. If you know of anything else which may be relevant, please do tell us about it.

Three “expectation charts” over time are shown. The comparisons for implied inflation (RPI) are between different combinations of “spot”, “forward” and “gilts”. They are merely contemporary snapshots of the future, containing no information about past performance. Whether past performance leads to an efficient estimate of inflation outcome is questionable, considered in the “experience charts”.