Looking forward, using the different indices available (either gilts and Bank of England spot or forward rates), what inflation rates would be expected? The expectation possibilities considered are “spot v forward”, “forward v gilt” and “gilt v spot”. None of  the  expectations were negative, the minima being 1.8% (2008) for spot, 1.3% (1999) for forward and 2.2% (2012) for gilts. It is interesting that the minima fell on quite different dates but we’re not sure what that can tell us. What really matters is how well these estimates performed against reality.